Although many viruses can cause seasonally-recurring respiratory disease outbreaks with distinct epidemiological features, we lack full comparative understanding of the factors determining these features. Multiple dynamical regimes can permit endemic seasonal outbreaks of respiratory viruses, so characteristics such as transmission intensity, sensitivity to seasonal forcing, and the role of age and prior exposure in immunity can be challenging to resolve. We used time series data including the disruption to viral circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic to investigate transmission dynamics of 6 viruses, revealing differential buffering of virus re-emergence by population immunity persisting from prior endemic transmission. Calibrated models capture virus-specific re-emergence dynamics that are consistent across countries amid relaxation of pandemic-era non-pharmaceutical interventions. These findings yield insights into the comparative dynamical characteristics of respiratory viruses to guide outbreak preparedness.

Description supplied by the event organiser.