Oliver Brady is Professor of Spatial Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), where he leads the Dengue Mapping and Modelling Group and is Head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics. His research uses statistical models to understand the geographic spread of mosquito-borne viruses and optimise their control. This includes mapping the global burden of dengue, chikungunya and Zika, predicting the spread of dengue and Zika to help contain pandemics, and developing new approaches to dengue control such as real-time outbreak forecasting and Wolbachia. He applies Bayesian statistical and mechanistic models to high-resolution climate, demographic and socioeconomic data, and works closely with ministries of health and WHO to develop strategies and guidelines for containing these expanding diseases. Abstract : Dengue is an emerging infectious disease and an important example of what we can learn to help prevent and contain other climate-sensitive infections. In this talk, I’ll describe work from my group to build reliable records of dengue’s expansion, test how climate, the wider environment and human movement shape its emergence, and use that understanding to forecast risk and inform preventive action across different timescales. I’ll then argue that further progress requires us to look beyond climate and the natural environment. We also need to understand how urban systems- how cities are built and managed, and how people move through them- create new opportunities to amplify the emergence of dengue and future pandemics.

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